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Stock Market


Issue Summary
Movements in the stock market are based on the confidence in the President and the economy. Typically the stock market moves significantly immediately after election day to reflect the Stock Market sentiment about what to expect for the next 4 years. Policies that make the stock market go up tend to be policies that benefit jobs and the economy has a whole, and policies like raising taxes and expanded government spending tend to make the market go down.

Liberal Position

When Obama/Biden were elected on election day the stock market DJIA was 8,943.  8 Years later it was 18,332 on election day.  It increased over 100% over 8 years, or 9,389 points. However, it should be noted that during the entire presidency of Obama, the Federal Reserve Bank deemed the U.S. Economy to be in a recession and as a result kept the Fed discount rate at 0.0%.  The Fed lowers this interest rate when it feels the economy is not strong and needs a boost.  A lower discount rate means that banks can borrow money at the cheapest possible rates, which significantly props up the stock market.  

Pundits always compare the last 3 years of Obama presidency to the first 3 years of the Trump presidency, instead of comparing the entire 8 year record of Obama.  Review of the US Chamber economic facts under Obama.

Conservative Position

When Trump was elected on election day the stock market DJIA was 18,332.  On February 14, 2020, the market hit 29,277, increase of 10,945 points in just 3.5 years.  This is just before Coronavirus hit the U.S.  The market grew fast under Trump because of the following reasons:

  • Lowest unemployment across the board for all groups
  • Largest labor participation rate in history
  • More companies moving back to the U.S. 
  • First time ever, the U.S. was energy independent and a net exporter of energy.
  • Largest wage growth overall, year of year
  • Largest wage growth for the lowest earners in history.
  • Millions of unfilled jobs, due to low unemployment.
  • Reduced Trade Deficits
  • Several million people came off of food stamps because they had jobs

Read about the success of the Trump presidency after 3 years. 

Many pundits went on TV before election day, claiming that a Trump Presidency would crash the markets.  The opposite happened. 

This was a campaign promise made and kept.

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